UKIP did NOT cost the Tories victory.

Conservative Home ask a question:


On the face if it, the implication is a valid one. These are seats where the number of UKIP votes is greater than the margin by which a conservative candidate was defeated. The table is from the above Con-Home piece, but updated* by me (red lines) to show one of the flaws in their premise.:

  • Bolton West: Labour 18,329; Conservative 18,235; UKIP 1,901; GREEN 545 
  • Derby North: Labour 14,896; Conservative 14,283; UKIP 829; BNP 2,000
  • Derbyshire NE: Labour 17,948: Conservative 15,503; UKIP 2,636
  • Dorset mid & Poole: Labour 21,100; Conservative 20,831; UKIP 2,109
  • Dudley North: Labour 14,923; Conservative 14,274; UKIP 3,267; BNP 1,899
  • Great Grimsby: Labour 10,777: Conservative 10,063: UKIP 2,043; BNP 1,517
  • Hampstead & Kilburn: Labour 17,332; Conservative 17,290; UKIP 408; GREEN 759;  BNP 328
  • Middlesbrough South: Labour 18,138; Conservative 16,461; UKIP 1,881; BNP 1,576; IND 818
  • Morley (Ed Balls): Labour 18,365; Conservatives 17,264; UKIP 1,506; BNP 3,535
  • Newcastle-Under-Lyme: Labour 16,393; Conservatives 14,841; UKIP 3,491
  • Plymouth Moor View: Labour 15,433; Conservatives 13,845; UKIP 3,188; BNP 1,438 
  • Solihull: Liberal 23,635; Conservatives 23,460; UKIP 1,200; BNP 1,624 
  • Somerton & Frome: Liberal 28,793; Conservatives 26,976; UKIP 1,932
  • Southampton Itchen: Labour 16,326; Conservatives 16,134; UKIP 1,928; GREEN 600
  • St Austell & Newquay: Liberal 20,189; Conservatives 18,877; UKIP 1,757; MEB KER 2,007; BNP 1,022
  • St Ives: Liberal 19,619; Conservatives 17,900; UKIP 2,560; GREEN 1,308; CORNWALL PARTIES 783
  • Telford: Labour 15,977; Conservatives 14,996; UKIP 2,428; BNP 1513
  • Walsall North: Labour 13,385; Conservatives 12,395; UKIP 1,737; BNP 2,930 
  • Walsall South: Labour 16,211; Conservatives 14,456; UKIP 3,449
  • Wells: Liberal 24,560; Conservatives 23,760; UKIP 1,711; BNP 1,004 
  • Wirral South: Labour 16,276; Conservatives 15,745; UKIP 1,274
  • What you’ll notice on the red lines is that other parties also peeled off votes that could make or break one of the dominant candidates. Frequently, the BNP won more votes than UKIP. If it’s fair to assume that UKIP voters are disaffected Tories, then it’s also fair to assume that BNP voters are disaffected working class socialists i.e. former Labour core voters. Greens could be disaffected Lab or Lib voters.

    So UKIP no more ‘cost’ the Tories a majority than the BNP and Greens cost Labour a majority. Which brings me to my second point, and the second reason that UKIP did not steal the Tories’ victory.

    People voted UKIP rather than Tory (as I did) because Cameron let us down over the Lisbon referendum and under him, the party has a pro-EU outlook. If the Tories had offered something of value to an increasingly Eurosceptic public, they could have won a comfortable majority.

    Likewise, if Labour hadn’t been so arrogant and cack-handed over immigration for the last 13 years, they wouldn’t have haemorrhaged votes to the BNP.

    To sum up then: It’s complete and utter cobblers.


    * If you’re interested in playing with the numbers, they’re here on the Guardian’s Datablog.


    Voting intentions

    Bella Gerens thinks declaring one’s voting intention is ‘lame’. But she doesn’t get a vote, so boo yah, septic Doris.

    I live in a very safe Tory seat. In 2005, the voting went something like this:

    Party Polled
    Conservative 55%
    Lib Dem 25%
    Labour 15%
    UKIP 5%

    To be blunt, my vote for or against the Tories won’t make a blind bit of difference.

    Which relieves me of a problem. We have to get Brown out, but I have several serious problems with voting for Cameron & his coterie of hooray crypto-socialists.

    So in the general election, I’ll be voting UKIP, with the aim of beating Labour into 4th place in this seat. UKIP are wrong on the burka ban, but they’re right on Europe and they’re right on the smoking ban.

    That said, if there was an LPUK candidate, I’d vote for them, however ‘pointless’.

    I’ll vote Conservative in the local elections, though, as we have an excellent Tory council who deserve backing.

    Off now to gratuitously burn vast quantities of fuel and terrify numpties.


    An eye-catching initiative



    Brilliant. That’s another party I can’t fucking vote for.

    Yes, I find burkas offensive, and an affront to our cultural tradition.

    But I find the constant clamour for banning things several orders of magnitude more offensive, and it’s most certainly in opposition to the British tradition of liberty.

    WTF are UKIP thinking?

    Useless cunts.


    UPDATE: UKIP even provide a Doublespeak quote worthy of the most cynical NuLabia droid:

    He told the newspaper: “We are taking expert advice on how we could do it. It makes sense to ban the burka — or anything which conceals a woman’s face — in public buildings. But we want to make it possible to ban them in private buildings. It isn’t right that you can’t see someone’s face in an airport.”

    He added: “We are not Muslim bashing, but this is incompatible with Britain’s values of freedom and democracy.”

    Fucking hell.

    The one good thing about the coming winter…

    Is the return of political hilarity after a fairly flibbertigibbeterous summer.

    Via Old Holborn, I learn that:

    The tradition that parties do not put forward a candidate to stand against the Speaker is going to have a fascinating result in Buckinghamshire.

    Nigel Farage of the UKIP party has stepped forward to fill the gap. He is standing against John Bercow in the next election.

    Will the Tories be able to resist the temptation to wave good-bye to Bercow by voting UKIP, or will they just honourably restrain themselves from voting at all?

    Watch this space.

    The finest tradition of comic farce looms ahead.

    Nothing much to add to that, but I’m getting popcorn in.


    Welcome to live coverage of No Sympathy Night…

    Welcome to the Al Jahomzah rolling lose channel….






    Evidence that the Greens lose their appeal when times are straitened…


    I expect that to be reflected less-so, but still to a degree, here.

    Evidence that my earlier suggestion bears thinking about….


    Tory resurgence in Porridge Fields?


    I’ve just heard on the grapevine that right there on Sky News, Glenys Fucking Kinnock had to concede that she isn’t eligible to be Europe Minister as she’s still an MEP, leaving the post of Europe Minister presently vacant!!! Fucking hell… lol..

    Blogging will be secondary to curry, for a time…


    East-of-England not for turning… no change to speak of..

    Yorks & HumberBNP’s first seat

    • Cons 2
    • Lab 1
    • UKIP 1
    • LibD 1
    • BNP 1


    • BNP 120139
    • CP 16742
    • Cons 299802
    • EDP 21287
    • JT 7181
    • LibD 161552
    • No2EU 15614
    • Libertas 6268
    • Scargill 19380
    • Green 104456
    • Labour 230009
    • UKIP 213750

    image image



    • BNP 37114
    • CP 13037
    • Cons 145193
    • JT 3793
    • LibD 73082
    • No2EU 8600
    • Plaid C 126702
    • Scargill 12402
    • Green 38160
    • Labour 138852
    • UKIP 87585
    • Rejected 3728


    • Cons 1
    • Labour 1
    • Plaid C 1
    • UKIP 1


    That really is remarkable…

    Interesting that Sky News gave Nick Griffin a 10 minute dress rehearsal before he faced the BBC…. and here’s the winning BNP candidate in Yerkshire…




    I will believe it when I see it….






    Neither Scotland nor Northern Ireland will declare tonight. Lazy cunts. On a related note, I’m calling in Scottish in the morning…

    Tired of London, tired of commie tossers…

    • BNP 86420
    • CP 51336
    • Cons 479037
    • EDP 24477
    • JT 7284
    • LibD 240156
    • No2EU 17758
    • Libertas 8444
    • Scargill 15306
    • Green 190589
    • Labour 372590
    • SocGB 4050
    • UKIP 188440
    • Yes2EU 3884
    • Other wankers… who cares…
    • Some rag-head … all his family (1774)
    • Rejected 11374


    • Cons 3
    • Labour 2
    • LibD 1
    • Green 1
    • UKIP 1


    East Midlands – Lib Dems take one from UKIP!

    • BNP 106319
    • CP 17907
    • Cons 370275
    • EDP 28498
    • JT 7362
    • LibD 151428
    • No2EU 11375
    • Libertas 7882
    • Scar 13590
    • G 83939
    • Lab 206945
    • UK1 20561
    • UKIP 201984
    • Rejected 9486


    • Cons 2
    • Lab 1
    • UKIP 1
    • LibD 1

    UKIP do kip…. the Orange Knobhead Kilroy vote deserted them…


    Live coverage continues on ….




    Hannan reads Dr Seuss to Gordo…. glorious…



    • BNP 101769
    • CP 35712
    • Cons 812288
    • EDP 52526
    • JT 14172
    • LibD 330340
    • Some other mongs 21455
    • Libertas 16767
    • Scarg 15484
    • Greens 271506
    • Labour 192592
    • Peace 9534
    • UK First 5450
    • UKIP 440002


    • Cons 4
    • UKIP 2
    • LibD 2
    • Green 1
    • Labour 1


    Uh-oh…. gawd bless the BBC.




    • BNP 60889
    • CP 21329
    • Cons 468742
    • EDP 25313
    • Fairpay Fairtrade 7151
    • JT 5758
    • LibD 266253
    • Kernow summat 14922
    • No2EU 9741
    • Pensioners 37785
    • Libertas 7292
    • Scargill 1033
    • Greens 144179
    • Labour 118716
    • UKIP 341845
    • YD 789
    • Bint 8971


    • Cons 3
    • UKIP 2
    • LibD 1


    North-West: Griffin wins seat for B&P



    • BNP 132094
    • CP 25999
    • Cons 423174
    • EDP 40027
    • JT 8783
    • LibD 235639
    • No2EU 23580
    • Libertas 6980
    • Scargy 26224
    • Green 127133
    • Labia 336831
    • UKIP 261740
    • Do what who now? 3621
    • Rejected 11342


    • Cons 3
    • Labia 2
    • UKIP 1
    • LibD 1


    West Midlands:

    • BNP121967
    • CP 18784
    • Cons 396847
    • EDP 32455
    • JT 8721
    • LibD 170246
    • No2EU 13415
    • Libertarse 6961
    • Scarg 14724
    • Green 88244
    • Labia 240201
    • UKIP 300471
    • Rejected 9216


    • Cons 2
    • UKIP 2
    • Lab 1
    • LibD 1

    All over for tonight……


    Go, Gordy, Go.

    Do you know what? I almost feel like getting a TV licence.


    But not anymore….. remember this, you communist fucks?




    Now fuck off.


    Dammit, Beavis….

    Was taken out, after work, for several pints of strong ale by a chap who turned out to be a card carrying Conservative this evening……

    Off I went home. After getting off the train, I headed to the polling station. I must have got terribly confused, because I ended up voting Tory on local and Euro elections… sorry Nigel… sucks to be you.

    Dave & Dan… fuck up and your families are bang in trouble.


    Guardian take on the BNP with a damp cloth…

    I don’t think the Graun has done a particularly good job here….

    Exposed: ugly face of BNP’s leaders

    I’ll admit that such is my annoyance and frustration with the main political parties, I have given serious thought to a protest vote for the BNP in the Euro elections tomorrow.

    The thought has been dismissed comprehensively by doing a little research about the party, its policies and supporters – also because in the Euro elections, every vote counts and a BNP vote would contribute to their regional list vote. That makes the difference between a protest vote and handing the BNP several million pounds.

    UKIP don’t do themselves many favours either, but the fact is they are the least worst voting option for a pissed-off Euro-sceptic like me. Cameron isn’t getting a look-in until he hardens his position on the EU.

    Anyway… here’s a cherry-picked selection of the Guardian’s attempts to demonstrate what an egregious shower the BNP are:

    Eddy O’Sullivan joined an internet group called "Fuck Islam"

    Problem with that being what? I’d also hope to join the ‘Bollocks to Idiot Christianity’ and ‘Rape and kill Catholic Priests’ societies.

    How about:

    Jeffrey Marshall, senior organiser for the BNP’s London European election campaign. Following the death of David Cameron’s disabled son Ivan, Marshall claimed in an internet forum discussion: "We live in a country today which is unhealthily dominated by an excess of sentimentality towards the weak and unproductive. No good will come of it."

    Yeah – well he’s fucking right, isn’t he? What, precisely, has been the benefit of ‘medical advances’ that enable cabbages to live a prolonged life, which I end up fucking paying for?

    Garry Aronsson, Griffin’s running mate for the European parliament in the North West, posts the statement, "Speak English Or Die!"

    Probably putting it a bit strongly, but it’s an emotion I’ve been overwhelmed with when out & about in London. When abroad I have a strong preference for places I can speak at least some of the local tongue and I feel horribly exposed if I cannot. Gawd bless Michel Thomas and Rosetta Stone.


    Aronsson proclaims on the site: "Every time you change your way of life to make immigrants more comfortable you betray OUR future!"

    Yes. Again, probably putting it a bit strongly, but I am fucking sick of special exemptions for religious and ethnic groups, whether its benefits for polygamists, the right to carry a ‘ceremonial dagger’ and not wear a crash-helmet, banning or ‘rebranding’ Christmas to protect sensibilities, providing translators and multi-lingual pamphlets that I pay for, the degree to which we have bent over backwards as a nation in the last 10 years is sickening and humiliating.

    He lists his hobbies as "devising slow and terrible ways of paying back the Guardian-reading cunts who have betrayed the British people into poverty and slavery. I AM NOT JOKING."

    I have no argument with him here either. We may differ on the how and the why, but not the what.

    The problem with all this is that it gives the impression that the BNP are more closely aligned to the thoughts and feeling of ‘ordinary Brits’ than the Guardian are. And it’s true. In provincial Britain, people are (in Grauniad terms) racist – or rather ‘groupish’ – it’s human nature, which only the metropolitan hot-houses such as London, Leeds, Birmingham and Manchester can overcome with any success, and even then with a payoff in terms of crime, disorder, social tension, ghettoisation & poverty.

    Multiculturalism has been a social disaster – it has polarised and fragmented society, pointedly rejecting pragmatic ‘colour blindness’. It has been the British and European left’s gift to the BNP and other racist parties across Europe.

    It is in-spite of all the anti-BNP witterings from the main 3 parties and the media, that they won’t get a protest vote from me.


    What the blithering fuck?

    Via Devil’s Kitchen, I am pointed towards Raedwald’s blog – which I’ll let speak for itself.

    Integrated EU blacklist of ‘criminals’ is here

    Have you paid a parking fine recently? Got three points on your licence? Been formally warned by the council for your bin protruding on the footway? (yep, I have had the £1,000 fine threat on the last one) Been suspended from your Sunday football league for rough tackling? (yes, seriously) Congratulations! Your records could soon be added to a pan-European database of subversives. This EU Council decision of 20th January on the establishment of a pan-EU ‘criminal’ database includes the following ‘offences’ :-

    • Offences related to waste
    • Unintentional environmental offences
    • Insult of the State, Nation or State symbols
    • Insult or resistance to a representative of public authority
    • Public order offences, breach of the public peace
    • Revealing a secret or breaching an obligation of secrecy
    • Unintentional damage or destruction of property
    • Offences against migration law – an "Open category" (offences undefined thus all encompassing)
    • Offences against military obligations – an "Open category" (offences undefined thus all encompassing)
    • Unauthorised entry or residence
    • Other offences an "Open category" (offences undefined thus all encompassing)
    • Other unintentional offences
    • Prohibition from frequenting some places
    • Prohibition from entry to a mass event
    • Placement under electronic surveillance ("fixed or mobile" – eg: home, car, mobile phone etc)
    • Withdrawal of a hunting / fishing license
    • Prohibition to play certain games/sports
    • Prohibition from national territory
    • Personal obligation – an "Open category" (offences undefined thus all encompassing)
    • "Fine" – all fines. inc minor non-criminal offences

    All those of us who have ever accidentally spilled a cupful of diesel in the water when refuelling, dropped a piece of litter or called the EU circle of stars a fascist and totalitarian symbol are now, officially, criminals. Welcome to the club.

    This is just unreal – NO democracy should be putting all this in place….. but then since when was the EU a democracy? And since most of our legislation comes from the EU, how can we imagine that we live in a democratic country? Utterly astonishing.

    In response, Guthrum is burning an EU flag – the only thing stopping me doing the same is the need to get an EU flag. Ah – here it comes….


    Sketching the future

    Asimov’s Hari Seldon, 20000 years in the future, took a lifetime to devise his PsychoHistory.

    Presumably, 20000 years into the future, they didn’t have Excel, because I’ve knocked together something pretty workable this afternoon.

    Here are some things I have in-store for humanity.

    2009 Euro-elections: UKIP & BNP big gainers. Labour big fat pie-faced losers.

    Public opinion against Europe is hardening in the UK and will continue to do so – especially now we can’t go over to the Eurozone and lord it over them with our fat wallets anymore. A lot of plebs will decide they can’t afford to go to Europe in 2009 and they’ll resent it.

    By then, the new limits on how much booze and tobacco we can bring home will probably have been implemented. Perhaps the weak pound will ameliorate the impact of that, or perhaps it will compound the resentment in people’s minds, at a time when everything is crap, they can’t even get cheap fags. After all, even with £1 = €1, fags are still significantly cheaper in most EU countries. Also, the restrictions on buying cheap booze in the UK, the mandatory ‘Alcohol Code’ introduced by Jacqui Smith, will be bearing down on us.

    Few will care about the impact of European law and its empowerment of our own Police to tap our computers remotely, without a warrant. Or about the internal EU politics numptitude, though some may point at a time of recession to the obscene expenses and benefits the Euro-gravytrainers get.

    Of course, by the time of these elections, in June, the campaign for the Irish re-run of the Lisbon referendum will be in swing, and that will make for interesting viewing – they’re have a new vote in October 2009, apparently. This will help to highlight to utter shiftiness of the whole EU bunch to the British public – not that this is assured by the dead-tree press and the BBBC. At least there’ll be the reminders that we didn’t get a vote at all.

    UKIP will do well amongst those who are incensed by the EU, because they know that the Tories are not offering anything to Eurosceptics. The Tories will do well amongst people who believe that the most important thing is to kick Gordon Brown in the face. The wheels are in motion to mitigate against the rise of the BNP, with Hazel Blears ‘feeling the pain’ of people who live in towns that have been transformed into Muslim ghettos in a generation. So, the BNP will do well everywhere Hazel Blears shows up, with their supporters deciding it would be best if their whitest and brightest were sent to sit in a fishtank is Brussels for 5 years, unable to do a bloody thing against the steam-rolling Frogs and Krauts.

    Always remember those who voted for the reduced alcohol and tobacco limits when voting:

    In a knife-edge vote on Wednesday, 328 MEPs were in favour of the move and 319 were against the strict new guidelines for “personal consumption”.

    Three out of 10 South East Euro-MPs, who represent Kent, voted in favour of the legislation, which could come into force in two years’ time – Caroline Lucas, po-faced cunt leader of the Green Party, hatchet-faced bitch Lib Dem Sharon Bowles and misery-spreading -communist-wanker Labour’s Peter Skinner.

    Incidentally, I have found out that the approval of this measure was by 328 votes to 319 with 34 abstentions. But I’ve yet to work out who, other than the above purtian dickheads voted for this measure, or abstained. What we do have is the list of UK MEPs.

    One final group I haven’t considered: The AGW true-believers, who will become disillusioned with the EU, while Vaclav Klaus is in the chair with his finely-honed scepticism. They’ll all vote green, like the deluded Che bothering mongs that they are.

    And further down the road, which I’ll talk about later.

    2010 Gordon Brown wins General election.

    2011 – Mandatory Road Pricing Introduced.

    2012/13Arnie becomes US President

    2012-15Power Cuts in UK. Rioting, mass disorder and civil disobedience, complete social and economic collapse.

    2015Norsefire win General Election