Step away from the model…

No, it’s not an Epstein or Weinstein story…

Earlier I predicted that the row about the statistical models would rumble on. And rumble on it has…

Screen Shot 2020-04-01 at 14.12.42

Loving the number plate on that cop car. Yes, I’m 12 years old.

Delingpole links us to a blogger who has been making something of a name for himself in his analysis of this situation.

This is something that a good friend of mine pointed out at the weekend, but I hadn’t seen covered anywhere until today.

It would be easy to go after the egghead if this all turns out to have been a colossal fiasco based on a dodgy spreadsheet (yes, I know.. SPSS, not Excel, GFY). Given the picture painted in the linked blogpost, it might even be somewhat justified, given this Neil Ferguson’s track record of cack-handed modelling driving economically devastating effects.

But Ferguson isn’t the one who has made the decisions, so I’m not likely to get terribly mad at him. It is ministers who have made the decisions based on this guy’s analysis, apparently without taking proper soundings from scientists with other viewpoints and models that make quite different predictions. It very much seems like the ministers trusted the egghead. And as anyone who knows anything knows, if you trust and you must also VERIFY.

We often complain about rule by technocrats, but the truth is that we are not ruled by technocrats. We are ruled by people who – for all the Ovid, Kant, Keynes and Blackstone they’ve read – last did any maths when they were 16 years old, probably never learned any statistics at all and have no idea how riddled with rivalry and power games the academic science world is.

We are, after all, ruled by former journalists who are in thrall to – amongst other minor deities – a mentally disabled 17 year old girl with a terminal case of Weltschmerz.

So there’s every chance that we are about to see, in a 6 month time frame, a model that the government has hung it’s trillion pound hat on turn out to be total cobblers. And not for the first time. The Foot & Mouth genocide (which also had Neil Ferguson’s prints all over it) was limited in its impact – it ruined farmers across the land with its reckless modelling, but your average townie office-dweller remained insulated from its primary effects. Not this time.

Climate change is immune to “look, we can see now that it was all demonstrably, wildly and disastrously wrong”, because the promises of doom and disaster are on a 100-year timeline, and the economic damage is death by a thousand cuts. Many of us will be long dead by the time the reckoning comes regarding the climate scam, but this COVID situation is probably going to be a political and economic bloodbath by Christmas.

We will be able to see in black and white that our economy is completely screwed because we placed our faith in a single source of badly flawed ‘truth’.

I’m pre-emptively saddened by the expectation that people will continue to tell us that – as far as climate change is concerned – the science is settled, the experts are unimpeachable in their motivations, and the needful is set in stone.

It’s a trivial illustration of my point, but I saw this the other day from a blue check mark:

Rapper M.I.A entered the health crisis hall of shame by announcing she would “choose death” over getting a coronavirus vaccination. She reasoned – if you could call it that – “most of science is in bed with business”

You go, girlboss.

I hope she remembers this pearl of wisdom next time she or one of her retinue is crapping on about CO2 and ‘the science’ that is ‘settled’.

Somehow, I think it will end up in the big bucket of cognitive dissonance that’s used to wash the fishbicycle.

AJ

4 thoughts on “Step away from the model…

  1. Discussion point only.
    We all know how vengeful American law can be – what are the odds on Ferguson being extradited for economic sabotage.
    ( BAankers and autistic computer programmers caused a lot less damage)

    • Vanishingly small I’d imagine. America has done nothing on Ferguson’s say so.. they have their own experts who are similarly divided to our own.

      Like here, Trump and the various state governors have responded to mass public fear and hysteria and demands for action.

      IMO of course.

  2. whatsit called,,,,? – oh yeah;-‘ conspiracy theory’. Crazy are not they, smug he he)- meanwhile WORLD ECONOMY DISApPEARS AND YOu RE FKD! god help us

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