UKIP did NOT cost the Tories victory.

Conservative Home ask a question:

image

On the face if it, the implication is a valid one. These are seats where the number of UKIP votes is greater than the margin by which a conservative candidate was defeated. The table is from the above Con-Home piece, but updated* by me (red lines) to show one of the flaws in their premise.:

  • Bolton West: Labour 18,329; Conservative 18,235; UKIP 1,901; GREEN 545 
  • Derby North: Labour 14,896; Conservative 14,283; UKIP 829; BNP 2,000
  • Derbyshire NE: Labour 17,948: Conservative 15,503; UKIP 2,636
  • Dorset mid & Poole: Labour 21,100; Conservative 20,831; UKIP 2,109
  • Dudley North: Labour 14,923; Conservative 14,274; UKIP 3,267; BNP 1,899
  • Great Grimsby: Labour 10,777: Conservative 10,063: UKIP 2,043; BNP 1,517
  • Hampstead & Kilburn: Labour 17,332; Conservative 17,290; UKIP 408; GREEN 759;  BNP 328
  • Middlesbrough South: Labour 18,138; Conservative 16,461; UKIP 1,881; BNP 1,576; IND 818
  • Morley (Ed Balls): Labour 18,365; Conservatives 17,264; UKIP 1,506; BNP 3,535
  • Newcastle-Under-Lyme: Labour 16,393; Conservatives 14,841; UKIP 3,491
  • Plymouth Moor View: Labour 15,433; Conservatives 13,845; UKIP 3,188; BNP 1,438 
  • Solihull: Liberal 23,635; Conservatives 23,460; UKIP 1,200; BNP 1,624 
  • Somerton & Frome: Liberal 28,793; Conservatives 26,976; UKIP 1,932
  • Southampton Itchen: Labour 16,326; Conservatives 16,134; UKIP 1,928; GREEN 600
  • St Austell & Newquay: Liberal 20,189; Conservatives 18,877; UKIP 1,757; MEB KER 2,007; BNP 1,022
  • St Ives: Liberal 19,619; Conservatives 17,900; UKIP 2,560; GREEN 1,308; CORNWALL PARTIES 783
  • Telford: Labour 15,977; Conservatives 14,996; UKIP 2,428; BNP 1513
  • Walsall North: Labour 13,385; Conservatives 12,395; UKIP 1,737; BNP 2,930 
  • Walsall South: Labour 16,211; Conservatives 14,456; UKIP 3,449
  • Wells: Liberal 24,560; Conservatives 23,760; UKIP 1,711; BNP 1,004 
  • Wirral South: Labour 16,276; Conservatives 15,745; UKIP 1,274
  • What you’ll notice on the red lines is that other parties also peeled off votes that could make or break one of the dominant candidates. Frequently, the BNP won more votes than UKIP. If it’s fair to assume that UKIP voters are disaffected Tories, then it’s also fair to assume that BNP voters are disaffected working class socialists i.e. former Labour core voters. Greens could be disaffected Lab or Lib voters.

    So UKIP no more ‘cost’ the Tories a majority than the BNP and Greens cost Labour a majority. Which brings me to my second point, and the second reason that UKIP did not steal the Tories’ victory.

    People voted UKIP rather than Tory (as I did) because Cameron let us down over the Lisbon referendum and under him, the party has a pro-EU outlook. If the Tories had offered something of value to an increasingly Eurosceptic public, they could have won a comfortable majority.

    Likewise, if Labour hadn’t been so arrogant and cack-handed over immigration for the last 13 years, they wouldn’t have haemorrhaged votes to the BNP.

    To sum up then: It’s complete and utter cobblers.

    AJ

    * If you’re interested in playing with the numbers, they’re here on the Guardian’s Datablog.

    Advertisements

    About Al Jahom
    Anti-social malcontent, misanthrope and miserable git.

    6 Responses to UKIP did NOT cost the Tories victory.

    1. wh00ps says:

      to be fair, i’d have voted for a euro-sceptic Conservative party. It still wouldn’t have made any difference because the Tories won here anyway.

    2. SadButMadLad says:

      The whole “UKIP stole votes from the Tories” sounds more like someone shooting the messenger than actually reading the message. The message was that the Tories and Labour both got their electoral strategies wrong. The whole UK electoral system is very tribal (a bit like football team supporters) and if they lose its never due to their own mistakes but the fault of someone else.

    3. John77 says:

      If you subtract the BNP and Green votes from UKIP, then you still get 10 seats where the net impact on your argument is more than the majority, which would be enough to give Conservatives plus DUP a slim majority of the 645 MPs attending the House of Commons.
      However in the ConHome piece Tim Montgomerie points out the more basic flaw in the argument posited by the Daily Telegraph: that one cannot assume that all UKIP voters would have voted Conservative rather than abstaining (there is anecdotal evidence of a lot of protest votes over expenses went to UKIP and BNP) and its list of marginals with UKIP votes is just that, a list. I think you are being unfair to ConHome by implying that they agree with the claim.

    4. Ethan says:

      Probably but I carefully considered all the issue and voted UKIP from conscience. In good conscience I cannot /will not accept Call Me Dave as leader of any party that I vote for. IMO he should be a Liberal not Tory.
      As a staunch old style Tory, I’d rather vote for another independent or simply abstain than vote for Cam.

    5. Fat Jacques says:

      Under AV a lot of Tories first preference will go to UKIP. Maybe then they’ll get the message?

    Leave a Reply

    Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

    WordPress.com Logo

    You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

    Twitter picture

    You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

    Facebook photo

    You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

    Google+ photo

    You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

    Connecting to %s

    %d bloggers like this: