The state of play

Here we are then. The morning after the night before. Well… the afternoon, but I only got up an hour ago, so bite me.

I’m very depressed indeed. I have to accept that for all of the prognosticating and predicting, I failed to prepare myself psychologically for the situation we now find ourselves in.

There were a few scalps, but none of these – even Jacqui Smith – compensated for the pain of seeing the likes of Ed Balls, Hazel Blears and Kerry McCarthy being re-elected.

In spite of the biggest swing to the Tories in generations (and what more could have been hoped for really?), we’re in a precarious position now.

I don’t know, yet, if anyone has done the maths on the new marginals, set against seats where there was electoral bananification – be that suspected postal voting fraud, or where people were left queuing outside polling stations as they closed their doors at 10pm last night. I suspect the number of important seats will be in single figures. Nevertheless, both of these shameful matters should be pursued with zeal.

Turnout was much higher than I was predicting.

I was always skeptical about a big Lib Dem breakthrough, but I am surprised by how badly they’ve actually done.

I was hoping (against hope) that UKIP would make an impact. They really didn’t.

I was hoping (against hope) that Old Holborn would make an impact. He really didn’t.

I was hoping (against hope) that LPUK would make an impact. They really didn’t.

Fair play to all of them for stepping up though.

At the time of writing, things are very much up in the air.

Cameron has come out as Prime Minister in waiting, offering to deal with the Lib Dems on things including electoral reform, but excluding PR.

Clegg has said he’ll speak first to the Tories. But he’ll obviously also speak to Labour.

Brown will offer him a referendum on PR that much of his party would be unable to refuse.

All in all, talks are unlikely to reach a conclusion today. The pressure will be on, though, for something to be in place before the markets open on Monday morning. The Pound is down against the Euro(!) and things aren’t going to be pretty if we still don’t know by Monday morning.

More later when the ramifications of all this have sunk in.

AJ

UPDATE: Worthy comment from:

http://deargodmakeitstop.blogspot.com/2010/05/public-wants-what-public-gets.html

http://www.boatangdemetriou.com/2010/05/hung-parliament-of-2010-few-thoughts.html

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