Tory Machiavellianism?

An interesting theory permeates the intermong. It comes from Peston, but the mention by Ben Brogan adds at least some weight to it.

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I should fucking hope not. We can do without twats like Osborne blindly pulling levers, with no clue which lever to use and how hard to pull.

That’s what the sage Robert Peston seems to be suggesting on his blog. He’s considered the head-scratcher that is the apparent shift in position on spending cuts mapped out by David Cameron in Davos (and reinforced by him and George Osborne in interviews yesterday). Their suggestion that fast and furious cuts might not be possible ‘in-year’ after all has left folk confused.

Peston cites McKinsey’s “Debt and Deleveraging” report, which has crunched through all available data on British debt compared to other countries and concludes that when you tot it all up

our real debt to GDP ratio is a whopping 466pc;  only Japan is worse, on 471pc.

In other words, WE NEED CUTS AND WE NEED THEM NOW.

Signs of Tory hesitation on spending cuts could make it that much more difficult and expensive for the Government to sell gilts, just when the Bank is supposed to be turning off the QE taps. Why do that, unless…he wanted deliberately to provoke a crisis that could tip the balance against Gordon Brown during the election. Far-fetched? Too clever by half? This is how Peston puts it:

“Now if you were a conspiracy theorist, you would note that David Cameron’s change of tone on debt-reduction coincides with what will probably be the most important financial decision this side of the general election – that is whether the Bank of England will stop buying gilts.

“If he has made the fiscal position of a future Tory government less clear, he has made the Bank of England’s decision on whether to withdraw support for the gilt market that much more complicated.

“And – you could argue – that Mr Cameron has increased the risk that investors will stop lending to HMG or demand much more onerous terms.

“Which, of course, would upset him, but perhaps his personal pain would be rather less if any sterling crisis were to happen before the general election.”

If this notion holds any water at all, my first reading is that the Tories are playing the most dangerous of games with the stability of the nation, and if Cameron’s motivation is electoral advantage by precipitating a crisis, it’s utterly fucking appalling.

AJ

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About Al Jahom
Anti-social malcontent, misanthrope and miserable git.

One Response to Tory Machiavellianism?

  1. Sage? Robert Peston? Nah. You mean stooge.

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