Not uniquely amongst bloggists, in my capacity as armchair economist I have predicted that the UK economy, even if it grows in Q4 2009, will contract again in Q1 2010.
The first ingredient added to my conjecture was evidence of a Q4 consumer boom based on ill-founded optimism.
The other thing I should have mentioned at that time was that VAT goes back up to 17.5% on January 1st 2010. If we are to believe the evidence suggesting that the reduction to 15% boosted the economy, why would we not also conclude that the increase will damage the economy, which is really in no better shape than it was 12 months ago?
This week, in the wake of Gordo handing them the kiss of death, Dubai’s national corporation look to be in trouble, unable to pay the interest (never mind repaying the fucking capital!) on their $60BILLION debt.
I have written previously about why I dislike Dubai – basically because it’s a society based on Islamist principles, that has somehow managed to gull thousands of westerners into thinking they’ll be just fine and don’t need to worry about the appalling and atavistic justice system that exists in Dubai.
Alas, my instinctive schadenfreude is pissed all over when I read this:
Which means that we’re going to get reamed again, and the already infinitesimal chances of my RBS shares ever recovering are now so small that even the LHC won’t fucking find them.
Oh well. Eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow we face penury.
2 thoughts on “More fuel for the double-dip fire…”
That’s why I have moved as much as possible of my investments into cash.(Those that have any monetary value now). Oh, and bye the way, I’ve never enthused over Dubai either. A house built on sand.
Pingback: Even the New Statesman’s talking Double Dip now « Al Jahom’s Final Word