Timing of the next general election…

So, we’ve had Q3 GDP results around 23rd October. The (as below) inflated Q4 figures will, I suppose appear around 23th Jan 2010. These should be (falsely) encouraging. I expect Gordo anticipates this will be a good (least worst) time to be launching an election campaign.

If I’m right about the negative results likely in Q1 2010, these will appear around 23rd April 2010. But by then, we’ll have long since had enough corporate Q1 results to know that things are grim.

So Gordo’s window for launching a campaign and holding an election is from 23rd January until roughly 15th April (year end returns will be known for a lot of firms) when corporate results start seeping out prior to full ONS GDP results on 23rd April.

So, announce an election, and launch a campaign on 25th Jan. ‘Good’ economic news from Q4 gets Gordo off to a (falsely) encouraging start. He’ll be planning as long and tortuous a campaign as possible, because he’ll want maximum opportunities for the Dib Lems and Blue Labour to fuck up. As I’ve said before, Gordo really has nothing to lose.

All these things considered, I reckon if Gordo remains in charge, we’re looking at an 8th April election.

We shall see.

AJ

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About Al Jahom
Anti-social malcontent, misanthrope and miserable git.

5 Responses to Timing of the next general election…

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