One piece just started to fall into place… this is from October 25th 2009:
For the nation as a whole, it has been a year of shitty news on the economy, hectoring from the state about every damned thing we do, utter desperation about the state of education, the NHS, justice, law & order and the ghastly corruption, venality and greed of our elected ‘representatives’. Faith in democracy is draining away. People are fucking pissed off. Depressed. Deprived of joy.
In the meantime, a bunch of people have moved onto tracker mortgages at tasty rates, freeing up disposable income (but not for paying down capital, natch).
In this society, many people acquire and consume goods as an abstract pursuit. An end in itself, which satiates psychological needs imbued by aggressive and invasive advertising. Tis a given, right?
These factors combined with the continuing availability of (not cheap) credit cards will fuel a Christmas consumer binge. We know that much of the economic growth in the last 10 years has been driven by insane consumerism. This binge will drag the economy back on to an upward trajectory. But only for Q4 ‘09.
In January, we’ll all sober up from our binge, open our bank statements and discover we’re gonna have to eat tinned beans on Tesco value toast until payday.
At which point the economy falls back into diminution.
Today in the Times:
Are you optimistic? Or are you spending to numb the pain and face the consequences later?
Today’s poll will boost government hopes that voters may be feeling more positive by the time of the general election next spring. It shows that the number of voters thinking the country as a whole will do well over the next year has risen from a quarter to a third since July and is now the highest since April 2008.
But nearly two thirds still think that the country will do badly over the next year.
So, 65% think we’re still gonna be fucked for the next year. And yet:
Its findings come as the best October high street sales for seven years have fuelled hopes that a pre-Christmas surge in spending could confirm the country’s emergence from recession.
Hmmmm… with this in mind, I think my reasoning for a predicted election date of 8th April is looking more solid.
AJ
Just about at the point of cancelling Christmas here, I have a credit card, but it’s only for emergencies, I live off what I earn and whilst everything went up in price, my wages didn’t go up at all.
So, no I’m not optimistic and yes we’re heading for a double dip.
Comment by QM — November 10, 2009 @ 8:36 pm |
Think everyone is talking about 25 March.
Comment by Obnoxio The Clown — November 10, 2009 @ 10:03 pm |
“Today’s poll will boost government hopes that voters may be feeling more positive by the time of the general election next spring”
What difference will that make? Labour’s disastrous dive in the polls started in October 2007 when the economy was peachy.
Comment by Dick Puddlecote — November 11, 2009 @ 9:36 am |
[...] first ingredient added to my conjecture was evidence of a Q4 consumer boom based on ill-founded [...]
Pingback by More fuel for the double-dip fire… « Al Jahom’s Final Word — November 28, 2009 @ 5:07 pm |